Talk: the when to see the end of the financial crisis? 》

Talk: the when to see the end of the financial crisis? 》

February 19, 2009/Dong Xiucheng

At present, the financial crisis has spread in either United States or European seems to have not seen signs of economic recovery in the least, serious shortage of public confidence, it appears that this entirely beyond imagination.

Governments of the lifeboat, increase the intensity of the Government's macroeconomic control and intervention in an attempt to reverse the economic swoon, economists seem to be at the beginning of the financial crisis on its potentially destructive lack of awareness of, and now also on the possible consequences of the economic crisis is too pessimistic, even when the financial crisis to hit the bottom on the issue of collective silence.

In my view, when economic crisis bottomed out the key is to look at United States economy, United States Government a series of policies are valid, so saying "lost United States, United States."

United States is the world's largest economy, the economic trend is essential. At present, for the world, United States economy is the barometer, dollar stability is an important prerequisite. Once the huge movements against the US, especially the depreciation of the dollar once substantial, will badly hit economic confidence, it is possible at a time when the existing financial crisis has not hit the bottom, again causing a new round of financial crises, if so it will have an incalculable blow on the world economy.

For China, the financial crisis is not causing the financial system has serious problems, but the impact on the real economy is expanding rapidly, can be said to complete than expected, this is also the cause of the Chinese Government to increase the intensity of the lifeboat.

On the macroeconomic policies of the Chinese Government in implementing Active fiscal policy and moderately relaxed monetary policies to expand, at the same time increasing the adjustment of industrial policy, introduce industrial revitalization plan, the core was pulling domestic demand through increased investment.

In my view, the Chinese Government response to the financial crisis is a large, policies and measures are decisive, is the ability to control the crisis Yes, but the difficulty is still severe, the most important of these is the serious job market shrinking, severe shortage of domestic consumer demand. Therefore, government policies should focus on the next step is to use economic and administrative means to increase the intensity of employment market, and to take all measures to consumption demand.

After a series of policies and measures, particularly to large numbers of construction of major infrastructure projects are started and implemented, China may lead to start the economic recovery is expected, optimistic to speak may show signs of recovery in the second half of this year, economic contraction may be shorter than the Western countries, but will also remain a serious problem, particularly consumer demand and will take more time to resolve the issue of employment.

Real world economic recovery is the key to solve the problem, while the world is the key to recovery in United States, United States is the key to the financial system and credit recovery, financial system back to normal manufacturing is the key of restoring consumer confidence and the public.